Mobile OSes compared respective to the the OS makers'
openness to third-party hardware manufacturers
and their relative openness to OS-level customization.

I’ve plotted the three leading mobile operating systems, arranged according to the customization opportunities of each. Not a shock that Apple is the most closed: no third-party manufacturers can license iOS and they hold tight control of the apps allowed in the iTunes market.

Android is at the other end of the spectrum. Manufacturers that deploy Android on their smartphones (but not Honeycomb or ICS for tablets) are free to adapt and customize it as they please because Google has written an open-source licensing model for Android. Amazon's Kindle Fire, though obviously not a phone, is one of the best examples of this complete customization at work. (And Amazon sidestepped Honeycomb.)

Lessons From WinMo

This is a departure from Microsoft's approach to its old Windows Mobile OS (unfortunately nicknamed WinMo). At the peak of Windows Mobile adoption, Chinese manufacturer HTC was making a name for itself as low-cost alternative, differentiated with unique Windows Mobile skins. HTC's investment paid off: they're a brand known for quality and innovation and for customizing Android and branding it as a distinct UI, HTC Sense. Now that HTC is shipping a device with a stock Windows Phone OS it will be interesting to watch HTC's strategy: are they experimenting to see if WP goes anywhere while maintaining their Sense brand on Android? That's a topic for another post.

When it comes to platforms, it seems Microsoft is aiming for the best of both models. They want to closely guard the design identity of Windows Phone by not allowing third-party manufacturers to customize it without their permission, yet they want to tap the eagerness of hardware manufacturers to push out more devices.

Why would Microsoft exert so much control? Because Microsoft Windows Phone can deliver the promise of user experience consistency across varying manufacturers' devices. With WP, Microsoft leaves little room for hardware makers to customize or skin their OS. Also, Microsoft can then control their app market and avoid what Google has experienced with companies like Amazon making their own Android app marketplace.

The question for the market to answer is whether there's room, as the comparison suggests, for an OS that offers a completely locked-in, singular user experience – where it will compete with Apple – and yet offer open-ended, differentiated hardware alternatives – where it will compete with Google.

It is not hard to envision Microsoft competing with Apple by offering a singularly strong and consistent UX and yet be able to offer a wider, deeper catalog of devices that Apple is reticent to make.

Android Needs Flagship Devices

By partnering with Nokia, Microsoft can in theory avoid the problem Google has experienced with open sourcing Android. Google has the perennial burden of showing the world the proper way to deploy Android – they have to show their vision and their leadership by designing a device themselves (as with the Nexus One) or with a partner (as they did with Samsung Nexus S). This begs another question for another post: what about that Motorola acquisition?

I don't expect any of Windows Phone's success to change the trajectory for Android, or Apple for that matter. The mobile smartphone market has plenty of growth before it's matured – especially in emerging markets. I'm also fully expecting to see Android move in directions that Windows Phone and iOS won't – in Android cameras, Android TVs, Android wearables, et cetera.

Differentiation

Windows Phone is a solid OS, differentiated beautifully in terms of both design simplicity and typographic execution. It's not just pretty, it has the strength of a UX point of view that was a deficit in Android when Android was in its first instantiations.

Sure there's plenty of continued speculation regarding the market: Will consumers like it? Will sales people give it a fair representation? Will brands and app developers get on board with a third mobile platform? If the buzz at CES is any indication I think cellular retailers will give the device a fair shake if Microsoft can attract the must-have apps to their marketplace.